Trends in prices of existing homes in France: Analysis of the second quarter of 2024
The existing home market in France continued to experience significant changes in 2024. The second quarter revealed a moderation in the price decline observed since 2023, although trends varied between regions and property types. This article details the current state of the market, regional differences, and underlying factors, while also presenting illustrative charts and tables.
1. General overview of national trends
Quarterly and annual changes
- Over the quarter , prices for existing homes decreased by 0.5% nationally, compared to a decrease of 1.5% in the first quarter of 2024.
- Over the course of a year , prices have fallen by 5% , with a comparable decrease for apartments ( 5% ) and houses ( 4.9% ).
| Period | Quarterly change (%) | Annual change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2024 | -1,5 | -4,8 |
| Q2 2024 | -0,5 | -5,0 |
Chart 1: Quarterly and annual price trends
2. Analysis by type of asset
Houses
Houses are experiencing a more pronounced price drop than apartments in certain segments:
- Quarterly variation : -0,6 %
- Annual variation : -4,9 %
Apartments
Apartments show a similar trend but with more regional variations:
- Quarterly variation : -0,4 %
- Annual variation : -5 %
| Property type | Quarterly change (%) | Annual change (%) |
| Apartments | -0,4 | -5,0 |
| Houses | -0,6 | -4,9 |
Figure 2: Comparison between houses and apartments
3. Focus on Île-de-France
The Île-de-France region remains a key area for older properties, with its own unique dynamics:
Quarterly change
- Prices fell by 0.9% , a slight improvement compared to the -2.4% in the previous quarter.
- Houses recorded a greater decline ( 1.4% ) than apartments ( 0.7% ).
Annual change
- The decrease is marked, reaching 7.2% . Houses are declining more ( 8% ) than apartments ( 6.7% ).
- In Paris, apartment prices have fallen by 6.7% over the past year.
| Area | Quarterly change (%) | Annual change (%) |
| Île-de-France | -0,9 | -7,2 |
| Paris (Apartments) | -0,7 | -6,7 |
| Houses in Île-de-France | -1,4 | -8,0 |
Chart 3: Price trends in Île-de-France
4. Regional analysis in the province
Main regions
- In Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes , prices have fallen by 5% over the past year.
- In Hauts-de-France , a slight quarterly recovery (+0.4%) was observed despite an annual decrease of 4.2% .
- In Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur , the annual decrease is more moderate ( 2.8% ) but the trend remains negative.
| Region | Quarterly change (%) | Annual change (%) |
| Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes | -0,5 | -5,0 |
| Hauts-de-France | +0,4 | -4,2 |
| Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur | -0,3 | -2,8 |
Figure 4: Comparison of regions
5. Factors influencing the market
Economic context
- High interest rates : Borrowing conditions continue to weigh on demand.
- Inflation : Reduced purchasing power limits investment capacity.
Supply and demand dynamics
- An increase in supply, due to more sales, contributes to downward pressure.
- Weaker demand is observed in several segments, particularly for mid-range goods.
6. Outlook for the third quarter of 2024
Anticipated trends
- A stabilization of quarterly declines could occur, although an annual decline remains likely.
- Large urban areas could be the first to show signs of recovery.
Regions to watch
- The Île-de-France region and major metropolitan areas like Lyon or Marseille could be key indicators of future trends.
The second quarter of 2024 shows a moderation in the decline of existing home prices in France, with notable differences between regions and property types. While economic and financial factors are limiting demand, a stabilization of prices could emerge by the third quarter. It remains to be seen whether this trend will continue in the coming months.
The annual volume of transactions continues to decline
As of June 30, 2024, an estimated 792,000 transactions were completed in the previous 12 months, compared to 825,000 at the end of March 2024 and 872,000 at the end of December 2023. This downward trend has continued since the end of September 2021. Sales now represent 2.1% of the housing stock, a proportion that has been steadily declining since its peak in the third quarter of 2021 (3.2%). For the past year, this figure has remained lower than that observed in the early 2000s, before the 2008 economic crisis.
Source: Notaries-Insee indices of existing home prices – second quarter 2024
