Volume of real estate transactions in France in 2024: Assessment and outlook
Discover the results of real estate transactions in France for 2024. Analysis of trends, decline in the volume of transactions and prices of old housing, as well as the outlook for the end of the year.
Introduction
The year 2024 marks a turning point for the French real estate market. After a period of sustained growth, the volume of real estate transactions has experienced a significant decline, according to the latest data published by French notaries. This trend has implications for prices, housing affordability and future prospects for buyers and sellers. At the end of September 2024, the number of transactions is estimated at 780,000, a decrease of 17% compared to the previous year . This article takes stock of the trading volume, price variations and changes that are looming for the months to come.
Volume of real estate transactions in 2024
A significant drop in transactions 📉
The volume of real estate transactions in France, all categories combined, saw a drop of almost 17% between September 2023 and September 2024. In 2024, the number of transactions stood at 780,000, compared to 935,000 the previous year. . This decline is significant and marks a return to volumes similar to those observed at the end of 2015 (around 790,000 transactions). This decrease reflects a more difficult economic situation, characterized by rising interest rates and persistent inflation which are weighing on the purchasing capacity of households.
A general decline but a slow recovery to come ⏳
Although transaction volumes have fallen, a certain stabilization seems to be emerging for the end of 2024. Forecasts remain cautious, however, with a market remaining under pressure due to economic uncertainties and the Bank's monetary policy. European Central (ECB). On the other hand, some regions could experience a slight recovery depending on local attractiveness and the price adjustments that have already taken place.
Prices of old housing in 2024
A drop in prices of apartments and old houses 📊
Prices of old housing fell by 3.9% in one year, whether for apartments or old houses, in mainland France. This drop in prices comes against a backdrop of economic slowdown, where buyers are more cautious, which reduces demand. Housing, whether apartments or houses, no longer meets the same enthusiasm as before.
The most dynamic regions in terms of transactions are also experiencing a drop in prices, although this may be less marked in certain popular areas, such as Paris or the Côte d'Azur, where prices remain relatively stable despite the general trend.
The impact on the house and apartment market 🏠
For old apartments, the average price continues to be higher than that of houses, but the drop is also significant in this sector. Older homes have suffered a slightly sharper decline in some rural areas, where demand is lower. On the other hand, in urban areas, prices remained relatively stable, although a slight decline was observed in certain market segments.
Housing accessibility in 2024
A slight increase in financeable area 📏
However, the fall in prices was not enough to offset the rise in interest rates, which directly impacts the purchasing capacity of households. However, a slight increase in the financeable surface area was noted. In 2024, the average financeable surface area for an old apartment is 55 m², an increase of one square meter compared to the previous year. For old houses, the financeable surface area reaches 92 m², or 3 m² more than in 2023. This increase is small, but it reflects a slight reduction in the pressure on households, who must now juggle lower rates. high and stricter borrowing criteria.
The disparity between regions 🌍
However, housing accessibility varies considerably depending on the region. Large metropolises such as Paris, Lyon and Marseille continue to record relatively high prices, even during periods of slowdown. On the other hand, rural or peri-urban areas benefit from a more marked drop in prices, which could offer interesting opportunities for buyers looking for more spacious properties at more affordable prices.
The outlook for the real estate market in 2024
Signs of stabilization 🔄
Despite a market that remains under pressure, the latest figures suggest signs of stabilization. Experts agree that the real estate market could stabilize in the second half of 2024, with a gradual recovery in transaction volumes from the beginning of 2025. However, this recovery will not be uniform and will depend on monetary policy, interest rates and economic recovery.
Potential buyers will need to be vigilant as borrowing costs continue to rise, while sellers will need to adapt to weaker and more selective demand.
The resilience of the luxury market 🏡
The luxury market seems less affected by the general decline in transaction volumes. High-end properties, whether prestigious houses or luxury apartments, continue to attract an international clientele, less impacted by local economic fluctuations. In this sector, demand remains stable, and prices are often less sensitive to falls than in the traditional real estate market.
Conclusion
In 2024, the French real estate market will experience a slowdown marked by a drop in the volume of transactions and prices of old housing. However, the gradual stabilization of prices and the increase in the financeable surface area for certain types of housing offer positive prospects. The market remains under pressure, but with adaptation by market players, a recovery could take shape for 2025. Rural and peri-urban regions benefit more from the drop in prices, while large metropolises record a less marked drop, and the market luxury real estate remains relatively stable.
Sources and links:
- Notaries of France – Real estate report 2024 : Real estate report 2024 on Notaires.fr
- The Banque de France – Economic outlook : Banque de France – Outlook
- The Real Estate Price Observatory : Real Estate Price Observatory
