Evolution of prices of old housing in France: Analysis of the second quarter of 2024
The existing housing market in France continues to experience marked developments in 2024. This second quarter reveals an attenuation of the fall in prices observed since 2023, although trends vary between regions and types of property. This article details the current state of the market, regional differences and underlying factors, while presenting illustrative graphs and tables.
1. General overview of national trends
Quarterly and annual evolution
- Over one quarter , prices of old housing decreased by 0.5% at the national level, compared to a drop of 1.5% in the first quarter of 2024.
- Over one year , prices fell by 5% , a comparable drop for apartments ( 5% ) and houses ( 4.9% ).
| Period | Quarterly variation (%) | Annual variation (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2024 | -1,5 | -4,8 |
| Q2 2024 | -0,5 | -5,0 |
Graph 1: Evolution of quarterly and annual prices
2. Analysis by type of property
Houses
Houses are experiencing a more marked drop in price than apartments in certain segments:
- Quarterly variation : -0,6 %
- Annual variation : -4,9 %
Apartments
Apartments show a similar trend but with more regional variations:
- Quarterly variation : -0,4 %
- Annual variation : -5 %
| Kind of good | Quarterly variation (%) | Annual variation (%) |
| Apartments | -0,4 | -5,0 |
| Houses | -0,6 | -4,9 |
Chart 2: Comparison between houses and apartments
3. Focus on Île-de-France
Île-de-France remains a key region for old real estate, with its own dynamics:
Quarterly evolution
- Prices fell by 0.9% , an attenuation compared to the -2.4% of the previous quarter.
- Houses recorded a greater decline ( 1.4% ) than apartments ( 0.7% ).
Annual evolution
- The decrease is marked, reaching 7.2% . Houses are falling more ( 8% ) than apartments ( 6.7% ).
- In Paris, apartment prices fell by 6.7% over one year.
| Area | Quarterly variation (%) | Annual variation (%) |
| Ile-de-France | -0,9 | -7,2 |
| Paris (Apartments) | -0,7 | -6,7 |
| Île-de-France houses | -1,4 | -8,0 |
Graph 3: Price evolution in Île-de-France
4. Regional analysis in the provinces
Main regions
- In Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes , prices fell by 5% over one year.
- In Hauts-de-France , a slight quarterly recovery (+0.4%) was observed despite an annual decline of 4.2% .
- In Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur , the annual decline is more moderate ( 2.8% ) but the trend remains negative.
| Region | Quarterly variation (%) | Annual variation (%) |
| Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes | -0,5 | -5,0 |
| Hauts-de-France | +0,4 | -4,2 |
| Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur | -0,3 | -2,8 |
Figure 4: Comparison of regions
5. Factors influencing the market
Economic context
- High interest rates : Borrowing conditions continue to weigh on demand.
- Inflation : The reduction in purchasing power limits investment capacity.
Dynamics of supply and demand
- An increase in supply, due to more sales, contributes to the downward pressure.
- Weaker demand is observed in several segments, particularly for mid-range goods.
6. Outlook for the third quarter of 2024
Anticipated trends
- A stabilization of quarterly declines could occur, although the annual decline remains likely.
- Large cities could be the first to show signs of recovery.
Regions to watch
- Île-de-France and large metropolises like Lyon or Marseille could be key indicators of future trends.
This second quarter of 2024 shows an attenuation of the fall in prices of old housing in France, with notable differences between regions and types of property. While economic and financial factors limit demand, a stabilization of prices could be expected by the third quarter. It remains to be seen whether this trend continues in the coming months.
The annual volume of transactions continues to decline
As of June 30, 2024, it is estimated that 792,000 transactions were carried out over the last 12 months, compared to 825,000 at the end of March 2024 and 872,000 at the end of December 2023. This downward trend has continued since the end of September 2021. Sales now represent 2.1% of the housing stock, a proportion in constant decline since its peak in the third quarter of 2021 (3.2%). For the past year, this figure has remained lower than that observed in the early 2000s, before the economic crisis of 2008.
Source: Notaires-INSEE indices of old housing prices – second quarter 2024
